Talkin’ Trades and the Postseason

Just a note before we start, in my All-Star Game post, I lef tout my Cy Young picks. How? I don’t know. But give me Verlander in the AL and I am clueless in the NL. Cueto is coming on VERY strong, Jurrjens, Vogelsong and Halladay are deserving, and I think Kershaw deserves a look too. Sorry, not you Jeff Karstens. I will take Halladay because the voters know him best.

The MLB Trade Deadline has passed, and we can finally take a stab at playoff predictions. Some did well, some did poorly, but regardless, we have a clearer picture of what we can expect from each team. We will do each team’s grades after going over the trades. Introductions like this are usually kind of awkward and superfluous, so on that note, let’s get to the actual trades.

Carlos Beltran to Giants

This was a pretty essential move for the Giants, whose offense is nearly as bad as my Indians’ lineup right now. Last year they at least had Buster Posey, and a living version of Aubrey Huff. This year, Posey out, and Huff has seen his power plummet (.365 SLG), leaving the Giants even more dependent on their pitching than usual. They had to give up Zach Wheeler, but this was an excellent move for the Giants, and a necessary one for the Mets. It makes the Giants immediately better, and I think they can beat the Phillies in a series if they make it to them.

I have a bad feeling about the Beltran trade, but really all the numbers point the other direction. Wheeler, while a good piece, is a pitcher, which means that he is just as likely to be Andrew Miller, or Brian Matusz in a couple of years as he is to be Michael Pineda. He was a big piece to give up, but definitely worth it for a team trying to win right now.

Hunter Pence to Phillies for Singelton, Cosart, 2 PTBNL (Player to be Named Later)

This was a bad move all things considered. It may have been an upgrade, but it should not have come to this. First off, Coasrt and Singleton are the Phillies top pitching and hitting prospects, respectively. Singleton is stuck behind Ryan Howard, but that is WAY too high a price for Hunter Pence.

Let’s do a quick player comparison:

Player A: .308/.356/.471, 11 HR, .368 BABIP (well above the average), 2.6 WAR, average defender, a couple years left on his deal

Player B: .285/.387/.503, 15 HR, .309 BABIP (more or less at the average), 3.8 WAR, average defender, free agent after the year

Who would you rather have? I want the guy with a little more pop, gets on base more, and has been to the playoffs before. Player B is Carlos Beltran, Player A is Hunter Pence. Pence’s average will probably end up right around .285 or so when that BABIP catches up to him. Beltran draws walks at a much higher rate as well, meaning that when Pence regresses, it not only will not be at the most important time for the Phillies, it may even be against the guy they had to have if they were going to go after a RF.

Ed Wade made another GM look foolish! We knew it had to happen some time but I never thought it would be like this. So the Phillies added a slightly above-average player in Pence. The guy is no scrub but he is a borderline All-Star at best. I cannot crucify them for that. However, if you are going to let your closest competition (probably) land the big guy, and you are going to take the consolation prize who is likely going to fall back to earth the rest of the year, do not expect too much down the line.

Look, the Phillies are still probably better than the Giants, but in a 7 game series, I do not think there is much separating the two. Halladay-Hamels-Lee-Worley vs Lincecum-Cain-Vogelsong-Bumgarner/Sanchez  is probably a wash right now, and with those guys on the mound it is just a matter of a run here or there. I know this section is supposed to be about Hunter Pence, but it is really Beltran v Pence and Giants v Phillies. The Phillies lost this trade as far as what they paid for Pence and lost as far as adding the better piece. They may ultimately win the series but I am very against this move for the Phillies.

One thing working in their favor that those more knowledgeable than I have pointed out is that the Phillies are sort of front-loaded regardless and will probably be screwed in three years anyway, so losing the prospects will not be such a big deal down the road if they can win now. Still not my favorite move but a slight grain of salt for you.

Indians get Ubaldo Jimenez for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Matt McBride and Joe Gardner, also get rid of Orlando Cabrera

This was a big price to pay but was worth it for what the Indians got. Ubaldo has been pretty damn good since June, is very affordable until 2014, and helps solidify a rotation that has been a little creaky lately. We all know how good he can be, so let’s look at why some dislike it.

Giving up Pomeranz and White is a huge price tag. No one is arguing that, but they also probably overrate just how many “pitching prospects” actually pan out. Not only that, but no one was projecting #1 stuff out of Alex White, and only in the best possible scenario is Pomeranz a true ace. They are a steep price but are certainly not locks to be stars in the future. In exchange for those guys, the Indians get about 75 Ubaldo starts for $11 million bucks. I will take that every time. This all assuming the velocity issues are not permanent as some of my Rockies sources have indicated.

As far as the roster, Carrasco may get suspended for throwing at Billy Butler’s head (it was childish) but regardless they should send him down to figure stuff out and call him up when David Huff falls back to earth. Masterson is a stud who gets no run support, Ubaldo is a stud, Carrasco has future stud potential, Tomlin has been solid, and Carmona has been streaky but is a very solid #4 or #5 starter.

Oh, and Orlando Caberera is gone!!! His leadership will really be missed when he no longer can pop out on the first pitch with a RISP. The Indians have been abjectly horrible for a couple months now, but are only 2.5 GB as I write this. They may not be great but if they make the playoffs with this rotation, they have a chance.

Indians get Kosuke Fukudome and cash for a bucket of balls and a dozen doughnuts

Cubs fans hate Kosuke Fukudome because he gets paid too much for him and probably expected too much. However, He works counts well (most pitchers/AB seen in the NL I believe), gets on base at a .375 clip, plays passable defense, and doesn’t have much pop. What else were you expecting from the guy, Cubs fans? He is a contact hitter who works counts, not Ichiro and not Barry Bonds. He is very solid. Here’s the best part for the Indians: The Cubs are sending over about $4m so the Indians are on the hook for a little udner a million the rest of the year. There are other good parts too, such as  only giving up a high A guy who doesn’t have much of a chance of making it to the bigs in Abner Abreu and the 6th best reliever in AAA who, if everything goes well, can be a marginal bullpen guy for a couple years in the bigs. Very solid move, for a team that really just wanted a stop-gap outfielder to deal with the Sizemore and Choo injuries.

We all know the Indians need a bat, and that this move will not fix that, but I still like the moves so far. When Choo comes back, it will help a ton as well. I believe in this team, and I wouldn’t have said that a week ago.

Doug Fister to Tigers

Solid move, but nothing spectacular. The rotation needed to be solidified and they did that somewhat here. This was a move that was very easy to like.

Rangers get Koji Ueharafor Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis

Did you know searching "Uehara" is NSFW? I didn't until a minute ago.

Solid bullpen arm for the Rangers and I like what the O’s got out of it too. Tommy Hunter was an Indianapolis kid too (Cathedral High School), so a shout out for him.

Derrek Lee to Pirates

Well, he is an upgrade over Lyle Overbay, but he is still not much of anything to get excited about. I am sure some ESPN people will like him for his leadership, but I am really not sold he can come in and make this team better.

Ryan Ludwick to Pirates for PTBNL

Alright, this one hinges on one little thing. If Ryan Ludwick started sucking because he went to Petco, it got in his head, and he stopped trying to hit for power, this could be a very good move for the Buccos. If Ludwick remains the player he was in SD, it is a bad move. That PTBNL is not just a scrub either because the Indians backed off going for him because the Padres were asking for too much, but the entirety of this trade depends on which Ludwick they get. I thought the Pirates had to do more, personally.

Rafael Furcal to Cardinals

Not sure I get this one. Their middle infielders are OPSing at or below .600 each, but Furcal is no better (.528). There really is no defensive advantage either. Not sure I get it, but maybe they just felt the need to mix things up.

Jason Marquis to D-Backs

Sure, I guess. Thought they needed a bat at 3B or 1B, not an arm, but how can I bash them for that after my Tribe went pitching when they had hitting issues. Not a bad addition just not especially intriguing. If he plays well, he is very re-signable, so they got that goin’ for ’em.

Jerry Hairston Jr. to Brewers

They needed to fill Rickie Weeks’ spot at 2B and as a utility guy Hairston does just that.

Mike Adams to Rangers for Erlin, Wieland

This is a fantastic haul for the Padres and it really solidifies the Rangers’ pen. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect but both of these guys will probably see time at the major league level next year. tip of the hat to the Padres on this one, though they may find the Heath Bell situation less than desirable. They want the Bell draft picks, but if he accepts arbitration, and they do not pay him a boatload of money, they do not get those picks. Paying bullpen guys a lot of money rarely turns out well.

Bourn to Braves for Jordan Schafer and 3 prospects

Yeah I guess this is a fine move, but I am not sold on what Bourn can do beyond this year. This year he will be some nice speed, leadoff/bottom of the order guy. However, if those prospects end up being anything (I am just unsure who they are) then this trade could end up being more of a positive for the Astros than the Braves.

Erik Bedard to Red Sox for 3 prospects

When the Rich Harden deal fell through, Theo Epstein went to his team and issued the following challenge: I want someone just as injury-prone as Harden, left-handed, and coming off an injury. Just a day later, the front office erupted in joy as the Red Sox landed Erik Bedard to presumbly be a stop-gap arm until they get healthy. Yeah, this isn’t a great move but the Red Sox can afford to give up a handful of prospects for a stop-gap starting pitcher who will probably get hurt before he hits the 25 inning mark.

Brad Ziegler to Diamondbacks

Solid relief arm, not sure it matters when they are in the same division as the Giants.

Grading the Teams

Alright, let’s get to the winners, losers, and grades in general.

Winners

The Indians are winners, but take it with a block (not just a grain) of salt. Not only am I such a homer, I wrote the Odyssey, but the Indians failed to do something they probably needed to do. The Ubaldo trade was covered above and I liked it, but the Indians real issue is their hitting, which is putrid. They will be getting Sizemore and Choo back soon, which is huge, but they may be out of it before they get there. They are a winner here because the Ubaldo trade sets them up this year and a few years down the road, but it may not work out this year. I hope they make it, I believe they can, but it may not beenough. We will see.

Just as scary as last year, if not scarier.

The Rangers were the other big winners here. Uehara and Adams are fantastic bullpen adds for a team that only really needs bullpen help. They had one hole and they filled it. I do not want to have them at all this postseason. I would rather face the Red Sox or Yankees. No, seriously.

The Giants are also winners and we already saw why. They needed a bat, they got a bat and that is all you can really ask of a front office. I think Giants fans will deeply regret Orlando Cabrera within a week, but it was a good deadline for the Giants.

The Blue Jays deserve a mention here despite being eternally in 4th. Excellent deal to get Rasmus.

Losers

The New York Yankees needed an arm and they came up short pre-waivers. I am fairly shocked that they did not come away with Ubaldo, especially if it just came down to Jesus Montero as was reported. He is a good prospect without a position and that is of very limited value. If it really was just a matter of not giving him up, the Yankees made a big mistake. They need another starter and they did not do it. For once, the Yankees stood pat and did the wrong thing.

I really feel like the Braves missed out on Pence/Beltran but I am not too familiar with their farm system so I do not know what would have been a reasonable price, but their failure to get involved will put a lot of pressure on an already-strained offense when the postseason rolls around. With that pitching, they could certainly make a run, but they did not really help themselves at the break.

Unfortunately, this section also includes the Pirates, who added next to nothing of real value, and while the new guys are technically upgrades, I thought they could have done much more. I understand them not going in on Pence/Beltran, but I would have liked to see Josh Willingham or some power bat not named Ludwick. If Luddy ends up being the player he was in St. Louis, this all changes but I am just not crazy about the moves.They are not on the same level of losing as the Yankees, but they could have done better.

The Reds needed to add a few pieces and added no one. I felt they were done a month ago, but this confirms it. I would be a little surprised to see them make the playoffs and shocked to see them do anything in the playoffs if they make it.

Middling Moves and Everything Else

The Angels stood pat because the Rangers are running away. The Diamondbacks added a couple arms to a race that I think is over and that move is not going to change much. The Tigers added Fister, and should probably be the favorites in the Central, but I can’t really call them a winner or loser, so they land here. The White Sox probably are kicking themselves that they were not the ones to pick up Rasmus, but it seemed like they were sellers here anyway so I cannot really call them a loser for accomplishing their goal. Same goes for the Rays who were both buyers and sellers and will be missing the playoffs regardless of any moves they wanted to make. The Brewers also land here, because while they found a replacement for Weeks in the short term, it is hard to feel they really won or lost. Same goes for the Cards who added Furcal, but did not add a bullpen arm. I do not blame them for not offering up the prospects for Bell (who wants to stay on the West Coast), and they must like who they have. So to recap, here are the grades for every team:

Bad grade for the Yankees

Yankees- F. Needed an arm. Do you trust Ivan Nova to start Games 3 and 7 in the postseason?
Red Sox- B. Bedard is a luxury for them, but they can afford him. Went back and forth between B and C here.
Rays- C. No adds, no losses.
Blue Jays- A-, Love the Rasmus trades, apart from some of his red flags.
Orioles- B+. Really like the pieces they added.
Tigers- B-, Fister is a solid add but not a game-changing add. They should be WAY up on the Indians now but are letting them hang around.
Indians- B. To clarify, it was an A for Ubaldo and a D for not adding a bat. Choo’s return is the biggest thing this team needs going forward.
White Sox- C, a seller only a couple games out. Weird. Still a little surprised my surprise Aramis Ramirez didn’t come through here.
Twins- D- Trading Denard Span for Drew Storen would have been a great move. Also, I dislike the Twins so a potential C is now a D. Sue me
Royals- C. I like them in the future and I think they did well to hang onto Melky, but Francoeur should have been traded.
Rangers- A, closed up the bullpen problems and really like them moving forward
Angels- No real adds, probably the right move. They are a team for next year, not this year.
Athletics- Not relevant, only traded a reliever
Mariners- C, no real opinion on prospects they got

Phillies- B. Thought they needed Beltran more than Pence. If the Giants don’t beat them to Beltran, it might be an A-.
Braves C-. Not sold on Bourn, needed a bat not a slapper.
Mets- B. Zach Wheeler is a decent add for a guy who was gone.
Marlins- No opinion
Nationals- B. Solid work not trading Storen for a guy who, in what would be the power-peak year for most, slugged under .400. There are much better options.
Milwaukee- C+. Good work getting K-Rod and getting rid of his games-played clause. Just need to get healthy.
St. Louis- C. Furcal underwhelms me.
Pittsburgh- B-. I know they can’t splash too much but I would have liked to see more in their magical year.
Cincinnati- F. Did nothing, will get nothing for it.
Cubs- C-. Why did they not move Pena so they can add Fielder next year?
Houston- B. They will suck (even more) in the short term, but they got some good pieces for Pence and Bourn, and almost offloaded Wandy’s contract.
Giants- A. Big, necessary move.
Diamondbacks- I. I is for inconsequential. Think the moves are alright but that race is over.
Rockies- B+. It hurts now, Rockies fans. I know it does. But you got some good pieces.
Dodgers- F. F isn’t for fail, but Financial fiasco.
Padres- B+. Good selling, though they may have misplayed Bell here.

Alright, so those are the grades, but where does that lead us?

AL East- Red Sox. The best team in baseball and will hold off the Yankees.
AL Central- Indians. I am very, very biased. The Tigers should win, the Indians will. However, BRUTAL stretch coming up, 4 vs Boston, 3 vs Texas, 3 vs Tigers.
AL West- Rangers. They should be given the same odds as the Red Sox. I would be/will be frightened to face them.
AL Wild Card- Yankees. Still a very good team playing in a tiny stadium missing a starter or 2.

NL East- Phillies. Because they have been the best team this year.
NL Central- Brewers. I liked them to close this out before they got K-Rod.
NL West- Giants. Equal to the Phillies in the playoffs.
NL Wild Card- Braves. They will be quiet getting in but could make some serious noise in the playoffs.

I will address the actual postseason picks when we get there, but I think the Braves, Giants, and Phillies are all capable of winning the World Series, and only the Red Sox and Rangers are in the AL.

If you got a present this Trade Deadline, go enjoy him for a week and I will be back then to talk about it all more.

This Week in Baseball: August 20th

Last week we looked more at the moves teams made, so let’s get back to the races.

AL East

The Red Sox are done, so it is really just between the Rays and the Yankees. Once upon a time the Rays were struggling to hit and the Yankees looked unbeatable. The Yankees still look pretty good, but with Carlos Pena back and Evan Longoria back on track, the Rays are putting up numbers like Sir Isaac Newton. Right now, the Rays are the better team, but next week it could be the Yankees. I will stick with the Yankees right now in the long run, but nothing would make me happier than to see the Rays take the division and knock the crown off the Yankees ‘ big heads. The sweep of the Rangers was impressive and a sign that the Rays are not just a playoff team, but a World Series contender, but I am not ready to give them the division just yet.

Yankees: 60% they win the division, 100% they make the playoffs (40% wild card)
Rays: 40% they win division, 100% they make the playoffs (60% wild card)

AL Central

I have stuck with the Twins all year, and even with Justin Morneau’s mysterious concussion, the Twins have taken the fight to the White Sox. They got them in Minnesota and put a beatdown on the Sox to give them a 4 game lead. This race is far from over, but for now it looks like it is the Twins’ race to lose. They could lose it, but for a franchise with the luck that the Twins have, I doubt it will happen.

Twins: 75% they win the division, 75% they make the playoffs (0% wild card)
White Sox: 25% they win the division, 25% they make the playoffs (0% wild card)

AL West

The Rangers will win the division, end of discussion. Their current slide is certainly worrying, but I do not think it is serious enough to keep them out of the playoffs. I hope this isn’t the case, but it looks ike the Texas summer has once again sapped the Rangers and it will take some recovery before they are back to their best baseball. For baseball’s sake, I hope they get it back, and I think they will, things are just a little tense in Texas right now.

Rangers: 100% they win the division, 100% they make the playoffs (0% wild card)

NL East

Someone will be safe, but someone could be out.

Now things get interesting. The AL races are straightforward for the most part, but the NL races are just getting out of the blocks. The Braves have been out front for a while now, but the Phillies are charging as they seem to always do in late August and September. Perhaps the scariest part for the Braves is that the Phillies are just now getting Chase Utley back, and Ryan Howard should be back shortly. The Braves did get better defensively with Derrek Lee, but it has got to be getting tense in Atlanta. They are still a very good team, but it is going to take a Herculean effort to hold off the Fightin’ Phils.

I go back and forth on the NL Wild Card almost daily, but this week I have been leaning toward the Braves. It will probably be the Giants next week, but right now Atlanta’s pitching looks just as good as the Giants’ and their offense is sneaky-good. It is going to be exciting to the last day, and that is great for baseball even if it is not good for the mental health of the fans of the teams.

Phillies: 51% they win the division, 71% they make the playoffs (20% wild card)
Braves: 49% they win the division,  69% they make the playoffs (20% wild card)

NL Central

Last time I wrote about the NL Central, I said that it would be close but one team slipping up could very easily just give it to the other team. This looks like it could be happening with the Cardinals’ recent slide. Now the Reds will have plenty of chances to slip up over the next couple of weeks, but right now they have to be the favorites in the Central. The Cardinals are suddenly searching for a solution at 3rd and not getting the pitching they have become accustomed to and the results have reflected the issues. They can still get it right, but things are getting tense in the STL. You might not be able to spell “hustle” without the STL, but you can spell “playoffs” without it, even if we are not at all used to it. I am sticking with the Cardinals, but the Reds are the favorites. The Reds will have to prove it though as the Cardinals have owned them this season. I feel like if the Reds are going to win the division, they are going to have to go through the big boys of the division.

Reds: 55% they win the division, 75% they make the playoffs (20% wild card)
Cardinals: 45% they win the division, 55% they make the playoffs (10% wild card)

NL West

Not a sight the Giants enjoy seeing, but a reality nonetheless.

We have stuck with the Padres here and it looks like it is going to pay off. They hold a fairly commanding 6 game lead over the Giants, and perhaps most importantly, they have a great head-to-head record against them. The Padres are in, which is still a pretty startling sentence to write given all the news about Adrian Gonzalez’s departure before this year. The Rockies and Dodgers were the teams that were supposed to be battling for this spot, not the Padres, but those two teams are out and the Padres are in. The Giants are in a difficult position. They are right in the wild card race, but are realistically fighting it out with the Phllies, Braves, Reds and Cardinals. Are they better than any of those teams? It depends on the day, but the point is that they are in a tough place. They can definitely still make it, but it is going to take some work. I picked them last week so they are obviously right in it, but they have a fight on their hands and making the playoffs would be an achievement given the situation.

Padres: 90% they win the division, 99% they make the playoffs (9% wild card)
Giants: 10% they win the division, 30% they make the playoffs (20% wild card)

This Week in Baseball: Recapping the Deals

It is sometimes hard to see how a guy will fit in just a few days after a trade, so we decided to take our time and then recap it. Please note we are not here to grade the deals, only decide how much it helps the team this year.

Yankees

Added Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns, and Kerry Wood

As an Indians fan, I have opinions on Kearns and Wood, and as a baseball fan I have an opinion on Berkamn, so that works out nicely. Berkman was a very solid picup as he is left-handed and has a history of killing the ball. He has certainly had a down year, but acquiring his is a good risk. Austin Kearns is a guy who is playing really well this year, but I am not sure how often the Yankees will really use him, making it an ok move,

THe Kerry Wood addition was well-intentioned but a bad idea. He sucks this year and there is no getting around it. The Yankees were wise to seek bullpen help, but that was not the guy to go after at all. I am not sure who was really available to the Yankees, but they could have done better.

He is once again the catch of the deadline. Still love seeing him in that Indians uni.

Thank God they didn’t get Cliff Lee. Speaking of which…

Rangers

Added Cliff Lee, Bengie Molina, Christian Guzman, and Jorge Cantu

Love these moves. Catcher has been a question mark for Texas since Jarrod Saltalamacchia developed the yips (who was involved in a trade as well) and picking up Bengie Molina made sense for both parties. He is not a stud but he is very solid and that is what you want in a catcher. Christian Guzman is not great, but with Kinsler’s injury, he becomes much more important. Jorge Cantu was also a very good addition as a professional hitter that can give them a lift in a pinch.

Cliff Lee is awesome. I don’t need to go over how good an addition this is, and I guess those worries about his history in Arlington are overblown, huh.

Well done, Texas and Mr. Ryan.

Twins

Added Matt Capps

Sure, good move. Not a ton to comment on here, just a solid bullpen move, one the Yankees should have made.

Rays

Added Jeremy Hellickson

Ok, so they didn’t trade for him, but he has been outstanding since his call up and looks set to help them down the stretch in somewhat of the same way David Price did 2 years ago. Consider me firmly on the Jeremy Hellickson bandwagon.

A move with an eye toward the World Series

Phillies

Added Roy Oswalt

This move was not aimed at making the playoffs, but rather at winning the World Series. Oswalt is not a great addition for a team trying to fix its occasional hitting woes, and yet I love the move. When you are the two-time defending NL Champ, you don’t make moves to get to the playoffs. That is not enough for your fans. You make moves aimed at winning the World Series, and that is exactly what this move is. Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt are a great postseason pitching trio. Once upon a time Oswalt was the guy you wanted on the mound in the playoffs. If he can recapture any of that it is a good move. Joe Blanton is the 4th guy, and the only guy among those 4 without playoff experience is Roy Halladay, who I have no concerns about. Would keepign Cliff Lee have been a better move in hindsight? Absolutely, but it is still a good move for this year.

What really impresses me about the Phillies lately is all the injuries they have sustained and how they have stuck with it. Chase Utley has been down for a while, but when Shane Victorino went down, the Phillies had Dominic Brown ready to step in and contribute. I realize they are not currently in the playoffs, but I am sticking by my pick of them to win the World Series in sticking with my preseason prediction.

Braves

Added Kyle Farnsworth, Rick Ankiel, and Alex Gonzalez

I like what the Braves are doing, but I think the Phillies outdid them, as they were expected to with that money. I admittedly have little opinion on Kyle Farnsworth, but I trust Bobby Cox and Atlanta’s front office on the pickup. They have had a great bullpen so I don’t think he will be leaned on making it a worthwhile risk.

The same sort of goes for Rick Ankiel, but they are leaning on him more. Nate McLouth has been disappointing as a Brave, and even if Ankiel does not hit for much of an average, it will probably still be an upgrade over McLouth. Like with Farnsworth, there are ways to hide him as Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, and Jason Heyward are more than capable of holding down the outfield if they have to. Alex Gonzalez was a marginal upgrade over Yunel Escobar, but I have not seen much of either lately so I will not pretend to know more than I do on the matter.

John Jay took a break from practicing law at the Supreme Court to give the Cards a boost.

Cardinals

Added John Jay, Randy Winn, Jake Westbrook

Ok, John Jay was not really an addition, but where the hell did this guy come from? He has been killing the ball and has some Cards fans thinking of Carlos Beltran Jr. Randy Winn is a solid add, but far from a game changer and the same goes for Jake Westbrook. Solid but not spectacular.

Reds

Added Jim Edmonds

You thought I was joking? No, he really is on the Reds now. Not a big deal. The Reds are clearly feeling confident with their lack of activity, but I think they needed a veteran arm.

Padres

Added Ryan Ludwick, Miguel Tejada

I really like these moves for a small market contender. They aren’t the marquee names the bigger teams got their hands on, but Miggy still has enough left in the tank to help a team that struggles to score runs, and Ludwick can do the same with a little pop. He finally found somewhere he can stay outside St. Louis where he has been phased out and it looks like it will stick. I think the moves are very good and give the Padres a boost that they need. They are clearly going to be underdogs with their perhaps too young starting pitching, but the front office did a good job in San Diego.

Dodgers

Added Jay Gibbons, Scott Podsednik, Ryan Theriot, and Juan Castro

The moves don’t help and it doesn’t matter because the Dodgers are headed for 3rd or 4th. Moving on.

Giants

Despite not being very good defensively, Burrell's numbers have gone up since he stopped DHing.

Added Pat Burrell (a while ago), Chris Ray, and Jose Guillen

I think there are two big successes there and one non-factor, but the Giants weren’t expecting it from him. Burrell has been on fire since coming over and is one of teh main forces on offense lifting the Giants closer to 1st in the West. Jose Guillen has the bat to do similar things for the Giants. He is a little nuts and has been stuck in Kansas City, but his numbers have been solid and I think he can make it happen for the Giants. Their upcoming series with the Padres will play a big role in determining if the Giants make the playoffs.

Revised Playoff Scenarios?

On the AL Side, nothing has changed. I’m rolling with the Yankees, Rays, Twins and Rangers.

In the NL, I am sticking with the Phillies, Cardinals and Padres, but inserting the Giants as my wild card team.

This Week in Baseball: The Second Half

I know that technically, the second half started a long time ago, but this is when we get a look at what teams will really look like down the stretch. Now there are still guys like Pedro Martinez out there to be signed, but for the most part, we know what to expect. So ahead, we get to look at the races, the regular season awards, and much more. Get ready, baseball fans, October is coming.

TB and NY: You wanna piece of me?

American League

East

The Yankees and the Rays look like locks to make the playoffs to me. The Red Sox are getting Josh Beckett back, but the Rays and Yankees have been the two best teams in the East, and probably baseball, for much of the year now. The Yankees will win the division, as expected, and the Rays will need some nerves to hold the Red Sox off for the Wild Card, but I think they can do it. The East is really just a bloodbath. If Toronto or Boston was in the West and played those teams over and over, they would clean up, but they are stuck with the Evil Empire and the loaded little engine that could. Tough luck for them, but they will be watching the playoffs from their couches this year.

Central

I am going to stick with my pick of the Twins, though I would not be too surprised if the White Sox were able to hold them off. The Twins went and got their bullpen help in the form of Matt Capps, and I would not count them out for Pedro either. Remember, these are hardly the small-market Twins of the past. I just have a feeling that it is going to come down tot he final day yet again here with potential for another one game playoff. It is really a toss up for me, but I will stick to my original pick preseason and go with the Twins to win the central.

West

Nolan Ryan is the Rangers. Robin Ventura is the AL West.

At this point, if the Rangers lose, it is a monumental meltdown. They are making all the moves, holding all the cards, and pulling away from the now 3rd placed Angels. Cliff Lee gives them legitimacy at the top of the rotation, and they have added great depth with Jorge Cantu. I would once again not count them out for Pedro’s services, although money is very tight in Texas right now. It is worth noting that Oakland, one of my sleepers this year, is really making a push, but it will end in a moral victory and no playoffs.

MVP: Miguel Cabrera (DET) Honorable Mention: Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano

Cy Young: David Price (TB) Honorable Mention: Cliff Lee (a very close second), Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester

Rookie of the Year: Austin Jackson (DET) Honorable Mention: Brennan Boesch (DET), Carlos Santana (CLE)

Manager of the Year: Ron Washington (TEX)

ALDS

Yankees over Twins in 3
Rangers over Rays in 5

ALCS

Yankees over Rangers in 6

National League

Oswalt has been great down the stretch throughout his career.

East

Now here is where things get interesting. The Mets are pretenders like we thought, but the Braves and Phillies look poised to fight to the death. 2nd is not a comfortable option either with Cincinnati in the picture and threatening to even upset the Cardinals (more on that in a moment). Roy Oswalt is in Philadelphia now, and if the hitting keeps up, we could see the second-half-surge Phillies we are used to. You might ask why they did not just keep Cliff Lee, and Ruben Amaro Jr. does not have an answer there, but as they move forward, they have a great shot at fighting to the death with the division leading Braves. I think the Phillies will win the fight, and will keep as close to possible with my preseason prediction with the Braves barely making it to the playoffs.

Central

Unfortunately, elation for the Braves means bad news for the Reds of Cardinals. They are locked in one of the better battles in baseball right now for Central supremacy, and it is pretty hard to separate the two at the moment. Will the upstart Reds upset Cardinals hegemony, or will the Cards hold off the feisty young challenger? I can honestly say I do not know for sure. I tend to lean toward the Cardinals because they have been there before, but if Pujols gets hurt or the bullpen has a rough week, it could very easily swing the Reds way. I will ultimately go with the Cardinals, but it is going to be one hell of a race. For that matter, that is true of the whole NL.

West

The Padres have knocked expectations of the the park.

I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but the Padres have this wrapped up. Their pitching is lights out (though Latos could be shut down as he is on an innings count), and their hitting is just good enough to get them where they want to be. Now, there is definitely some luck at play here as Troy Tulowitzki’s injury was perfectly timed to knock the Rox out of contention, and the Dodgers offensive swoon timed up with playing the Padres, but you have to credit the Padres at this point. They are the best team in that division, and though the Giants are sticking around, I just can’t see them catching the Padres.

MVP: Joey Votto (CIN) Honorable Mention: Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard,

Cy Young: Josh Johnson (FLA) Very Honorable Mention: Roy Halladay, Ubaldo Jimenez, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Tim Hudson, Mat Latos (if he wasnt on an innings count)

Rookie of the Year: Jaime Garcia (NL) Honorable Mention: Stephen Strasburg (WAS), Mike Leake (CIN), Jason Heyward (ATL), Buster Posey (SF), Gaby Sanchez (FLA), Great year for NL rookies and pitchers.

Manager of the Year: Bud Black (SD)

NLDS

Phillies over Cardinals in 4
Padres over Braves in 5

NLCS

Phillies over Padres in 6

WORLD SERIES PREDICTION

I said it at the start of the season, and although it happened in a much different way than I thought, I am sticking to my beginning of the year pick.

Phillies over Yankees in 7\

See? The All-Star Game matters.

TO SEE MY BEGINNING OF THE YEAR PREVIEWS, CLICK HERE

Maybe there is some wishful thinking here, but the Phillies will walk away with the title.

This Week in Baseball: June 18th

Alright, with World Cup in full swing, this is going to be an abridged version of TWIB.

Interleague Play

You know what would just make too much sense? If MLB used Interleague paly to determine home-field advantage in the World Series. Just throwing it out there. The AL has dominated over the past 5 or 6 years, and we assume it will continue this year as well. However, there is definitely something to be said for what seems to be unusual depth in the NL. No one, Nats included, is a pushover in the NL East, There are no pushovers in the NL West (San Diego’s horrible Interleague record notwithstanding). The NL Central could be better, but the Cards and Reds seem strong enough to make my point at least valid. On the other hand, we see the AL being abnormally weak. There is no great team in the AL West, though there are 3 decent ones. The AL Central is pretty bad right now. Of course, the AL East is monstrous with 4 really good teams, but Baltimore should be fodder for most teams.

Even with all that said, we see year after year teams like the Royals killing NL teams with a record twice as good theirs, and teams like the Padres heading into Interleague play and getting toasted. So what are we to think of Interleague play? Most importantly, it is a lot of fun for the fans. It gives them a chance to see their club in different places, ad sets up rivalries that would otherwise never be realized. Inerleague play is just plan fun for fans. I know we did not really reach any shocking conclusions there, but not every topic deserves a radical conclusion. Moving on.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are on fire. We wrote them off a little early, and it may turn out that they do not have the pitching to make any moves, but few teams are playing better than the Dodgers right now. Clayton Kershaw is having a great year and is turning into an ace. Perhaps most impressive about him is his youth as he is only 4 months older than Stephen Strasburg. Manny is being Manny once again, Andre Ethier is playing great when healthy, and just imagine what would happen if Matt Kemp remembered how to hit a baseball. The Dodgers are in fine form right now but their test will be to see if their pitching can hold up and keep that bullpen safe and healthy. If they can do that, they could sneak their way into a playoff run.

New York Yankees

I will not pretend to be unbiased. I hate the Yankees. I could write a 10,000 word post on it, and if I get bored enough, I just might. However, they are playing great and, in my mind, are still the World Series favorites. They will definitely go through rough patches as Jorge Posada inevitably gets injured again and someone else gets dinged up, but they are just loaded. Add to that that they could go out and add a guy like Roy Oswalt or really whomever they would like and you have to consider them the odds-on favorites. Frankly, my more cynical side hopes the Yankees win a bunch of World Series in a row so we might see a salary cap, but that is a story for another time. The Yankees are rolling.

The Oriole Effect

There is talent on this team. Brian Matusz is a top prospect, Matt Wieters is a top prospect, Adam Jones is a good player, and there is a lot of reason to be hopeful for O’s fans. However, we are seeing what I am going to call the Oriole Effect. It is not a novel idea really, but it is a little different from NFL and NBA situations because of the dynamic of the game.

The O’s are losing. Not only are they losing, they are doing so with remarkable efficiency. Losing takes its toll on everyone (look at the Nets), but rarely does it happen to so many young talented players at the same time. Plenty of people had the Orioles down as their sleeper team. They are loaded with young talent at key positions, but this is not like the Nets where Brook Lopez put up great numbers on a bad team. These young talented guys are adding to the stench. Why? Baseball is made up of a lot of individual matchups, but when things are going bad, they snowball. I feel that Brian Matusz, Matt Wieters, and the other talented guys are victims of this. They do not have the leaderships skills at their young ages to do anything about it personally, so they are stuck to get caught in the snowball. They go to the ballpark everyday thinking they are going to lose, and it rubs off.

Do I have anything to prove any of this? No. Is there more than enough reason to believe that the putrid-ness of the O’s has rubbed off on their talent? Absolutely. I see the same thing with Matt LaPorta in Cleveland. Well, maybe he just isn’t good, but we will have to pretend that is not a possibility for my sanity’s sake. I hope the Orioles start winning. Not because I respect the franchise, or because I think Camden Yards is a great park (it is), but because I do not want to see great young talents like Wieters and Matusz getting sucked under. They are caught in a riptide of losing, and I just hope for O’s fans and for teh players that they are not dragged under.

Losing is taking its toll on the O's.

The Sports World Explodes

Ladies and gentlemen, the world of sports has gone bonkers. Just as finals rolled around, everything that could have possibly been written about has happened. Tiger Woods went from sterling to sullied, Mark Ingram won Alabama’s first Heisman Trophy, the BCS laid out its bowl games, Curtis Granderson is a Yankee, Roy Halladay is a Philadelphia Phillie, and Cliff Lee is a Mariner. NFL Draft talk has begun, there are two undefeated teams in the NFL as the playoffs loom and Chris Henry died. Wow, could we have missed more? I think not. Let’s get caught up.

Tiger Woods

By now everyone knows the sordid details, so I will not bother going over them. Actually, I would like to start by stressing how little I have come to care about this story. Why you ask? Well, the first reason is that Tiger has never really been the greatest guy. I mean he is probably the best golfer ever to live, but he has never been Mr. Nice Guy. His take no prisoners attitude is riveting, but he has never been the nicest guy on the course. There is a reason Phil Mickelson is cast as a likeable guy, and that reason is that Tiger is really not that likeable on the gold course. I love watching him play, but he throws clubs, cares only for crushing his playing partners, and his singular focus is on golf. Does this change the fact that he is the greatest golfer of all-time? Absolutely not, just do not be surprised when he turns out to have a few blemishes. Were people surprised when Michael Jordan turned out to be kind of a jerk and cheater (off the court)? Then do not be surprised when Tiger has those blemishes. They really are similar guys. Singular focus on being the best, take no prisoners, not necessarily the nicest guys but are still likeable because of their devotion and pure ability. Let it go America. He made some mistakes that were undeniably wrong, but he is still worth watching Thursday through Sunday.

On a more golf-related note, how much is this going to drive Tiger when he comes back? It is like Belichick after he got caught cheating. He came back and wanted to beat everyone by 40. This idea has been brought up by Bill Simmons a few times, but seriously, how many strokes will Tiger beat his first field by? 5? 10? 20? He is going to go nuts.

Mark Ingram

The Tide got their first Heisman Trophy and completed their already-prestigious trophy case. I think they got it right in

Now THAT is a Heisman stiff arm

giving it to Ingram, though. I had been backing McCoy, but after getting destroyed in the Big 12 Championship Game and frankly being lucky that his brain-fart in not calling a timeout did not cost his team a trip to the BCS Championship Game. He laid an egg in crunch time and Mark Ingram laid the lumber to the #1 defense in the land. There was no doubt who was the best player in college football this year. I cannot wait to see Suh in the NFL, but Mark Ingram was clearly the best player of this campaign. Maybe he and the Tide will get to add another trophy this year, but I will leave that for another article.

The Hot Stove

I will have full breakdowns of these trades soon, but for now let’s just look at the two big trades of the off-season so far and a few big free agent signings. I will link this to the full breakdown ASAP, but for now just a few words.

John Lackey Angels->Red Sox.  I really like this move as far as how it looks, but with how much hitting the Red Sox lost I am not sure if it will make a difference in the Wins column. Beckett-Lackey-Lester is scary, especially in the playoffs, but expect them to struggle to put runs on the board in the way they will have to to compete with the Yanks.

Chone Figgins Angels->Mariners. I love it for the Mariners. I assume they will be playing Figgins at second, but he is a guy you can put anywhere. More on the Ms later.

Mike Lowell Red Sox->Rangers. I still like him as a DH, just not as a 3B, which is ok with the Rangers since they are all set with Michael Young at third.

Hideki Matsui Yankees->Angels. Well the Angels needed to get someone with the White Sox pursuing Vlad and

Figgins leaving. Not sure if he will be a good enough addition to keep them a contender though.

Halladay to the Phillies, Drabek, D’Arnaud, Taylor to the Blue Jays. You have to like Roy Halladay on any team, but hats off to the Phillies for finding a way to hold on to J.A. Happ in this deal. They gave up some top prospects, but they picked up probably the best pitcher in the game and were able to reload a little with the next trade. How much better are they now? We will

Sweet, sweet nostalgia

see.

Lee to the Mariners, Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez to the Phillies. King Felix next to Clifford the Big Red Lee is g

oing to be frightening, but they definitely paid a price for it with 3 top prospects. The Mariners are trying to win now and I have to say this trade looks like they might be able to do just that. As an Indians fan I am still somewhat attached to Cliff Lee (and CC Sabathia for that matter) and cannot think that he will do anything but succeed in Seattle. Watch out Angels, the Rangers and Ms are coming for you in the AL West.

Cranderson to the Yankees. Obviously there are other players involved but it will be hard to list, so I will save that for the full recap. I actually do not like this move for the Yankees. Yes, Granderson is a phenomenally talented guy who is more than ready for the flashing lights of New York, but they are not getting the .300 hitter who could pound doubles into the gap. They are getting a leadoff hitter who strikes out a ton, albeit with higher power numbers. On the one hand they will definitely get their share of production from the lefty in that bandbox, but they are not getting a leadoff hitter. time will tell how this one turns out.

NFL

The playoff picture is clearing up so let’s look at what is guaranteed and what is only probable.

AFC

The Colts are in. #1 seed clinched. The Chargers are in. Not clinched, but almost definitely the #2 seed. The Bengals and Patriots have not clinched but are prohibitive favorites for the #3 and #4 spots in some kind of order. The Wild Card spots look like Denver and Baltimore will be in the playoffs, but Miami and Jacksonville are still in the picture. However, I still expect Denver to hold on to the #5 seed and for Baltimore to get the #6 seed.

NFC

The Saints are in. #1 seed clinched as well, like the also undefeated Colts. The Vikings are pretty much locked as the #2 seed and NFC North Champs. Arizona looks like the #3 seed barring total collapse, and Philadelphia will take the other spot. The Wild Card is murkier in the NFC with the Cowboys, Giants, and Packers fighting for the final two spots. I would put my money on the Cowboys missing out and Wade Philips losing his job, but maybe that is just me. I would definitely be afraid of playing the Packers right now. Every problem they had early in the year (defense, offensive line) has been pretty well shored up lately and they are playing outstanding football. If they can beat Pittsburgh it would do wonders for their playoff chances.

A Playoff Preview will come a little closer to playoff time but the obvious teams to watch are the undefeateds, and #2 seeds.

BCS

The BCS bowls were set and they unfortunately pitted TCU against Boise. Come on, put them up against the big boys so we can see how good they really are. More predictions to come.

Chris Henry

On a more somber note, Chris Henry died today after sustaining injuries from falling out of the bed of a pickup truck.Sad story out of a guy who has his share of bad stories in the past but who had been really turning it around. We will see if it inspires or crushes the Bengals, but they are no doubt hurting.

RIP

World Series Game 5

Though a very interesting game, there is really very little news to report. Cliff Lee is still great, AJ Burnett still has great stuff, but does not bring it all the time, and both teams can hit. I am not sure if I agree with Girardi’s strategy of 3 days rest for all, but as he is one game from a World Series Championship, I can hardly argue with it.

I would make the argument for throwing Gaudin in Game 5 over AJ Burnett. Chad Gaudin is clearly not a better pitcher than AJ Burnett, but when AJ Burnett pitches in an NL stadium, the Yankees lose Jorge Posada AND a DH. If he would have waited until Game 6 to throw, a bit of his downside would be negated. Obviously this is using a bit of hindsight, but I think it just makes more sense to throw Gaudin. He is undoubtedly fresh, and though the Phillies have seen him before after his many years in the NL, he would be a decent option. There would be no pressure on him as no one would really expect him to outduel Cliff Lee and he would have nothing to lose really. It may seem a bit like forfeiting Game 5, but it puts the Yankees in the best position to succeed overall. Burnett and Pettitte on full rest in Games 6 and 7 would be an undeniable advantage. Now, if the series goes to 7 games, the Yankees will be both in panic mode, and will be forced to throw CC again on 3 days rest. He did well the first few times doing this with Milwaukee last year, but after a while he broke down. That is the last thing the Yankees want. I feel Girardi was a bit short-sighted in making this decision. He was effectively telling the team he expected the series to be over in 6 or less. That, in turn, tells the Phillies, that if they win Games 5 and 6, they are not level, but ahead as even the Yankees manager was projecting that notion. It certainly would not guarantee a Phillies victory, but it would be a huge boost of morale for the Phillies. If Burnett had outpitched Cliff Lee, this would all be different, but he did not by any stretch of the imagination.

I am a little surprised that Manuel sent Cliff Lee out for the 8th inning, but I guess you do not want to pull punches, especially when this was in all likelihood Lee’s last start this season. Use every ounce of him you have, I guess. However, it also reflects on the current confidence in the Phillies pen. This is somewhat of a tossup issue honestly, but the results suggest going to the bullpen in hindsight. I might have left him in too, but I hope Manuel at least considered putting in Durbin or Park to start the 8th.

With all this said, I think this one ends at Game 6. The baseball fan in me, as well as the Yankee-hater in me, would be ecstatic to see it go 7, but I think it ends, fittingly, with Pettitte. Pedro was outstanding in Game 2, but it just was not enough, and I think this will be the case again. The Yankees will get to celebrate in New York. To use a ton of Jay-Z references in one sentence, the Yankees will get to “Run This Town” because they are “Already Home” and are clearly showing that “Empire State of Mind”. I could keep going, but I will mercifully stop. I hope it goes 7, but it will be Yankees in 6. Seeing the baseball season end is always sad, but it is even worse when you know the axis of evil came out on top. Regardless, my hat goes off to the Yankees on their Championship.

Patrick McWeeny

World Series Game 4

Well, that turned out much too predictably. I had the score almost right, but I sure do wish I was wrong. We could talk about the obvious implications of the Yankees being up 3-1, or Chase Utley’s ownership of CC Sabathia, but I want to talk about Johnny Damon and Brad Lidge. Johnny Damon stole two bases on one pitch without an error, something that rarely if ever happens. I would argue that it only happens with relievers on the mound. Relievers do not practice fielding their position like the starters do. I would be willing to bet that most starting pitchers would realize that their job was to cover 3rd base on a steal with a shift on, but this just does not occur to relievers. Lidge then compounded his error by getting rocked by A-Rod and Jorge Posada. The Johnny Damon play was great and I can appreciate it as a baseball guy, but it is time to talk about Brad Lidge.

Remember when Brad Lidge was an elite closer for the Astros? He was almost unhittable and was one of the top closers in the NL. Then this happened…        I would suggest putting it on mute, and skipping to 1:45.

In case you were wondering, the ball now resides in the NASA Hall of Fame for being the first baseball launched into outer space by a human. At least A-Rod’s double landed, that one is still in orbit.

For a year afterward, he could not get anyone out. He was emotionally broken and calling his confidence shaky would be an understatement. He bounced back last year and was perfect in the Phillies World Series run and all looked to be back to normal. This year he struggled mightily, but Charlie Manuel kept the faith and Lidge had been lights out in the postseason. You cannot help but to wonder what this will do to him. After the Damon steal, with 2 outs mind you, Lidge did not retire a batter. If he had gotten Teixeira to ground out or A-Rod to pop out or something, all would be ok, but the second A-Rod pounded the double into left field, Lidge had to be having flashbacks. This was the second time one of the top two players in the game had just pile-driven him into the ground, both on the field, and in his head. I have to think that Lidge is done for a while after that. He collapsed after the Pujols launch, and the A-Rod and Posada shots probably have his confidence lower than that of a Raiders fan. It is a shame that he has fallen victim to this twice, but if he in fact is broken again, then wow. Never has one man been so thoroughly demolished in clutch moments. For those of you looking at fantasy baseball already for next year, I would not touch Brad Lidge with a 10 foot pole. If your team needs a closer and you are thinking about trading for one, avoid Brad Lidge like he has leprosy, the plague and any other disease you can think of. Congrats Yankees. Do not pop the bottles yet, but you can put them on ice.

Patrick McWeeny

World Series Game 3 and Gave 4 preview

Unfortunately, expect more of this

This went just about as expected as the Yankees, after a slow start, feasted on Hamels and went ahead 2-1. I personally had the game picked 7-4, but it was close enough as it ended 8-5. The Phillies came out swinging and took the early lead, but Hamels fell back to earth with a deafening thud upon facing the Yankees lineup the second time. The pressure is now squarely on the Phillies as no one wants to go down 3-1 and they will face their second pressure game of the series. The Yankees have only faced one pressure game thus far and will hold off facing another one until a potential Game 7. The series has got to be seen as “Advantage Yankees” not only in the present, but in the upcoming games. CC Sabathia is more than capable of throwing on 3 days rest and he is rested, unlike last year when he was going on fumes. CC vs. Blanton has got to favor CC, even when he is not fully rested. I hate to say it but the Yankees are going up 3-1 in the series by a score of 6-4.

Patrick McWeeny